Climate change is having a host of compounding and conflicting impacts on mortality. In this article, we share our initial findings from building a prototype causal model to explore the interactions of various climate and socio-economic factors on excess mortality. We discuss:

• Mortality risks from a changing climate and secondary impacts
• Exploring how climate risk drivers affect mortality
• How do you calibrate a model like this?
• Initial model insights: temperatures and pandemics
• Using models to examine tipping points and other acute stresses
• Making climate scenario modelling decision useful